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THE TRUTH IS OUT THERE ... falling property prices as at March 2008

"House prices fell for the fifth month running in March ... "

 

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The media has been consistently reporting residential house price falls for five months now. The latest reports coming from Nationwide, Britain's second biggest mortgage lender -
"UK house price growth at 12-year-low in March" - Nationwide.
"The UK's housing market weakened further in March, pushing the annual rate of growth to its lowest level in more than a decade, the country's leading building society said today. Nationwide said house prices fell 0.6 pct in March from February in seasonally-adjusted terms, the fifth consecutive monthly drop. This pushed annual growth down to just 1.1 pct -- the slowest since March 1996".

But what is happening is a slowdown in house price growth - house prices rising at a slower rate each month for the last five months - but that's a different proposition to house prices actually falling - which is what the headlines are consistently reporting. If your house was worth £400,000 a year ago and after a year of growth at 1.1 pct is now worth £404,400 (using Nationwides figures) ... that's not a house price fall is it?

'A clear change in sentiment since the late summer has led to the sharp slowing in house price growth,' Nationwide chief economist Fionnuala Earley said of the March figures". ... slowing in house price growth - not actual falling prices.

But what is the effect of TV, Newspapers, and commentators talking down the market?
If buyers think prices will fall further they will wait before entering the market. If sellers see prices falling they will only sell if they have to. Fionnuala Earley ... "Expectations for falling prices can have a major impact on transactions and price levels, 'first by removing the urgency to move and second by giving buyers a bigger incentive to drive a harder bargain in order to hedge against any possible falls in prices.'

Nonetheless Nationwide is sticking by its November forecast, for prices to fall only modestly this year (2008). ... "the latest weak reading should be seen in context. Even with five straight months of decline, house prices are still 11 pct higher than two years ago and 47 pct stronger than five years ago".

Our view is there's so much information, and misinformation being reported, its the spin you put on the news, how you interpret the figures, and what you want to believe.

The truth is out there .... somewhere.


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